The final 2025 figures came out last month. Births: 671,270. Deaths: 1,589,533. The gap: 918,263. Chiba City has about 999,000 residents.
Three things stand out.
First, this is the 19th year in a row. Deaths first overtook births in 2005. In 2015 the gap was 284,789. A decade later it is more than three times larger.
Second, deaths actually fell in 2025, for the first time in five years. The gap barely moved, because births kept falling.
Third, births are now less than half of deaths. Even if the birth rate recovered tomorrow, the generation that would have those children is already smaller than the one before it.
For investors, this is not a forecast. It is already in the numbers: fewer customers, fewer workers and fewer taxpayers in Japan every year.
What do you think is the most underestimated consequence?
Source: MHLW, Vital Statistics 2025 (final)
